The future of humanity depends on protecting the ocean, so what will happen if its deterioration continues at the current rate?

It is the foundation of life on Earth. Yet, the ocean is under immense pressure and faces multiple threats in the future that jeopardize not only its health but also the future of humanity as a whole.

Nearly 550 experts from 86 countries spent five years preparing a comprehensive 1,600-page assessment detailing the challenges facing the ocean. This scientific guide provides the knowledge humanity needs to protect and preserve planet Earth.

This assessment is known as the "Global Ocean Assessment." This article highlights the key findings from its 1600 pages.

Note: We use the word "ocean" to refer to "oceans and seas" because they are all connected to each other and ultimately form one ocean.

The ocean is of vital importance to people everywhere.
🔹The ocean affects the life of every individual on a daily basis, even if they do not live in coastal areas.

The ocean contributes to climate stability by absorbing most of the Earth's excess heat, as well as limiting harmful greenhouse gas emissions. Without its cooling effect, more extreme weather is expected, threatening food systems, supply chains, and insurance markets.

🔹The ocean is a source of food. When fish stocks collapse or supply chains are disrupted by the effects of climate or illegal fishing, prices rise, not only for seafood, but for many foods that depend on global trade and coastal economies.

🔹The ocean provides psychological and physical health benefits, medicines, and a large percentage of the oxygen we breathe.

🔹The ocean supports trillions of dollars in global trade, tourism and job opportunities.

The ocean is under increasing pressure
Humans are reshaping marine ecosystems. The world's population reached 8.2 billion in 2024, with 37% of them living within 100 kilometers of the coast.

This has inevitably led to a concentration of human and economic activity in fragile coastal areas, increasing the extraction of natural resources, expanding infrastructure, dumping waste, and degrading habitats.

Meanwhile, offshore projects are seeing a marked increase; wind farms, deepwater oil infrastructure and the expansion of seabed cables and pipelines are changing habitats away from the shore.

Climate change is changing conditions
The data regarding ocean warming and sea level rise is staggering.

🔹The rate of sea level rise, as a result of melting ice caps and water expansion due to rising temperatures, has doubled from 1.9 mm/year before 2015 to 4.3 mm/year in 2023.

🔹Arctic temperatures are rising four times faster than the global average.

🔹The oxygen-deficient areas (or dead zones), where oxygen levels drop to a point where most marine organisms cannot survive, extend over an area of ​​4.5 million square kilometers.

🔹16% of the total increase in ocean temperatures since 1955 occurred after 2018.

Biodiversity is declining
Marine life is under severe pressure, as evidenced by the decline of coral reefs in the Caribbean by approximately 80% since the 1970s.

Up to 90% of the world's coral reefs could disappear if warming exceeds 1.5°C above industrial levels. Vital coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and seagrass beds, continue to shrink.

As temperatures rise, species of organisms, from plankton to marine mammals, are moving towards the North and South Poles, while non-native species are spreading more easily under changing environmental conditions.

Pollution is widespread and increasing
Marine pollution is on the rise. Every year, 52 million tons of plastic waste enter the ocean, contributing to the formation of an estimated 24 trillion microplastic particles, which are now known to affect more than 4,000 species of marine organisms.

Chemical pollution is also increasing, with more than 4,000 compounds from pharmaceuticals and personal care products being detected in seawater.

The good news? Some older pollutants, such as mercury, have decreased in some areas.

Marine food systems are under threat
Marine food systems are a vital source of nutrition and livelihoods, providing 20% ​​of the animal protein consumed by humans worldwide.

Marine aquaculture continues to expand, becoming a global industry worth $90 billion. In addition, 121 million people engage in marine recreational fishing, contributing to local economies and promoting well-being.

However, the stability of these systems is increasingly at risk:

🔹37% of fish stocks were depleted in 2021.

🔹It is estimated that illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing removes between 8 and 14 million tons annually, generating between $9 and $17 billion in illicit revenue.

🔹Disease outbreaks, pollution and climate pressures continue to pose a challenge to the long-term sustainability of marine aquaculture and fisheries.
 

The ocean economy is huge, but unsustainable.
The ocean economy is valued at $1.5 trillion annually and is expected to exceed $3 trillion by 2030. The coastal and marine tourism sector supports 174 million jobs.

Efforts are being made to understand the ongoing impacts and sustainability of offshore oil and gas production, as well as maritime transport, which carries more than 80% of global trade and contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions.

Governance and knowledge
International cooperation in ocean governance is gaining increasing momentum, but the 57 global treaties relating to ocean protection result in a fragmented approach.

Achieving a sustainable ocean economy requires equity and the prominent inclusion of traditional indigenous knowledge and practices. Without them, achieving ocean health, community well-being, and sustainable and equitable development will be difficult.

There are still significant gaps in ocean knowledge, with only 27% of the seabed mapped as of 2025, leaving a poor understanding of deep-sea ecosystems, biological processes, and cumulative effects.

Solutions are plentiful
Despite the increasing pressures, solutions exist, including nature-based approaches, emissions reduction, and expanding marine environmental protection.

However, even with the full restoration of ocean ecosystems, this would only contribute about 2% to global climate change mitigation goals, underscoring the need for radical change.

The next decade is critical : without swift and coordinated global action, the health of the ocean will continue to deteriorate, threatening climate stability, biodiversity resilience, food security, livelihoods, and the well-being of billions of people.