UNSG Press conference on Sea Level Rise - Tonga, 27 August 2024

Distinguished members of the media,

I am in Tonga to issue a global SOS – Save Our Seas – on rising sea levels.

A worldwide catastrophe is putting this Pacific paradise in peril.

Global average sea levels are rising at rates unprecedented in the past 3,000 years.

The ocean is overflowing.

The changes here in the Pacific region are visible since my last visit.

And around the world, rising seas have unparallelled power to cause havoc to coastal cities and ravage coastal economies.

The reason is clear: greenhouse gases – overwhelmingly generated by burning fossil fuels – are cooking our planet.

And the sea is taking the heat – literally.

It has absorbed more than 90 percent of global heating in the past fifty years.

Water expands as it gets hotter.

And glaciers and ice sheets are melting into the sea – adding to its volume.

In other words – more water is taking up more space.

Two papers released today by the United Nations throw the situation into sharp relief:

The World Meteorological Organization’s report on the State of the Climate in the South West Pacific;

And the UN Climate Action Team’s new report summarizing the science: Surging seas in a warming world.

Taken together, they show that changes to the ocean are accelerating, with devastating impacts.

Month after month, sea temperatures shatter records.

Marine heatwaves are more intense and longer-lasting – doubling its frequency since 1980.

And rising seas are amplifying the frequency and severity of storm surges and coastal flooding.

These floods swamp coastal communities. Ruin fisheries. Damage crops. And contaminate fresh water.

All this puts Pacific Islands in grave danger.

Today’s reports confirm that relative sea levels in the Southwestern Pacific have risen even more than the global average – in some locations, by more than double the global increase in the past thirty years.

Ocean temperatures are increasing at up to three times the rate worldwide.

And Pacific islands are uniquely exposed.

This is a region with an average elevation just one to two meters above sea level;

Where around 90 percent of people live within 5 kilometers of the coast;

And where half the infrastructure is within 500 metres of the sea.

Without drastic cuts in emissions, the Pacific Islands can expect at least 15 centimeters of additional sea level rise by mid-century, and more than 30 days per year of coastal flooding in some places.

Distinguished members of the media,

Today’s reports show that the average rate of sea level rise has more than doubled since the 1990s.

But a doubling in speed shows that the phenomenon is accelerating in an unusual and uncontrolled way.

Global-mean sea level has already risen over 10cm since 1993. It is as I said worse in the Pacific, with some locations exceeding 15cm.

Emerging science suggests that a two-degree temperature rise could potentially lead to the loss of almost all the Greenland ice sheet, and much of the West Antarctica ice sheet.

This would mean condemning future generations to unstoppable sea level rise up to 20 meters – over a period of millennia.

But at three degrees of warming – our current trajectory – the rise in sea level would happen much more quickly – over centuries.

That spells disaster: wide-ranging and brutal impacts, coming far thicker and faster than we can adapt to them – destroying entire coastal communities.

Can you imagine the impact on this beautiful capital city of Nuku’alofa?

But what happens in Tonga did not start in Tonga, and it doesn’t end here.

Surging seas are coming for us all – together with the devastation of fishing, tourism, and the Blue Economy.

Across the world, around a billion people live in coastal areas, from low-lying islands to megacities; from tropical agricultural deltas to Arctic communities.

Coastal megacities including Dhaka, Los Angeles, Mumbai, Lagos and Shanghai are threatened by our swelling ocean.

Rising seas will increase the frequency of extreme events like coastal floods.

If global temperatures rise by 2.5 degrees, that frequency could increase from once in 100 years to once in five years by the end of this century.

Without new adaptation and protection measures, economic damage from coastal flooding could amount to trillions of dollars.

Around 1 meter of future sea level rise is already locked in. But its future scale, pace, and impact are not.

That depends on decisions we take now.

Global leaders must step up:

To drastically slash global emissions;

To lead a fast and fair phase-out of fossil fuels;

And to massively boost climate adaptation investments, to protect people from present and future risks.

Only by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius do we have a fighting chance of preventing the irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets – and the catastrophes that accompany them.

That means cutting global emissions by 43 percent compared to 2019 levels by 2030, and 60 percent by 2035.

We need governments to honour the promise made at COP28 – and deliver new national climate action plans – or Nationally Determined Contributions – by next year.

And these must be aligned with the 1.5 degree limit, and cover all emissions and the whole economy.

They must put the world on track to phase out fossil fuels fast and fairly – including ending new coal projects and new oil and gas expansion now.

And they must keep the promises made at COP28 to triple renewables capacity, double energy efficiency and end deforestation by 2030.

The G20 – the biggest emitters, with the greatest capacity and responsibility to lead – must be out in front.

And the world must massively increase finance and support for vulnerable countries.

We need a surge in funds to deal with the surging seas.

At COP29, countries must agree to boost innovative financing and a strong new finance goal.

And developed countries must deliver on their finance commitments – including the commitment to double adaptation funding to at least $40 billion a year by 2025.

And we need significant contributions to the new Loss and Damage Fund as a step towards climate justice – in support of vulnerable countries like the Pacific Islands: And the same applies to the Pacific initiatives that were announced once again during this Summit of the Pacific funds to protect the Pacific Islands.

Finally, we need to protect every person on Earth with an early warning system by 2027.

That means building up countries’ data capacities to improve decision-making on adaptation and coastal planning.

Dear members of the media,

The world must look to the Pacific and listen to science.

This is a crazy situation:

Rising seas are a crisis entirely of humanity’s making.

A crisis that will soon swell to an almost unimaginable scale, with no lifeboat to take us back to safety.

But if we save the Pacific, we also save ourselves.

The world must act, and answer the SOS before it is too late.

And I thank you.

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